{"id":13248,"date":"2015-08-14T15:08:48","date_gmt":"2015-08-14T22:08:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/giuliettas.com\/?p=13248"},"modified":"2015-08-14T15:08:48","modified_gmt":"2015-08-14T22:08:48","slug":"alfa-romeo-giulietta-turns-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rufushamilton.com\/giuliettas\/2015\/08\/14\/alfa-romeo-giulietta-turns-100\/","title":{"rendered":"Alfa Romeo Giulietta turns 100!"},"content":{"rendered":"

No, that title is not a typo, and this post is not from 39 years in the future, but it is about the future. \u00a0I have been having a lot of conversations about technology, especially self driving cars lately, and this post is in reaction to those conversations, and anticipates \/ explores that topic through a possible experiential evolution of my Sprint ownership.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"An<\/a>
An early SS advertising photo. \u00a0The first picture I posted to this blog 7+ years ago.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/p>\n

In 39 years we will celebrate the 100 year anniversary of the 1954 shipment of the first Giuliettas. \u00a0If the technological progress of the last 10 years is any indication, we, and our Giuliettas, will be living in an interesting, very different world (yes,I live in an urban center in a technology hub). \u00a0Since this blog is about a family of cars, the last of which was built roughly 50 years ago as of my writing this post, then I must be referring to driving, or <\/span>being driven<\/span><\/i> as the case will likely be.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before I proceed in earnest, let me just say that there will be a culling of the automobile fleet, not at noon on some Tuesday 14 years from now, but as the result of market forces and regulations and other practicalia. \u00a0Our Giuliettas will be on the right side of this culling, seen as having value beyond intrinsic transportation value -value as art or craft or both, or something else even maybe; riding the coat tails of the lobbying power of Ferrari \/ Corvette owners. \u00a0My 2014 VW GTI? \u00a0Probably not.<\/span><\/p>\n

Brief history of self driving cars: \u00a0In late 2017 Tesla Motors announces a fully autonomous* mode for its paradigm changing<\/a> Model\u2019s S and X to coincide with the launch of its much anticipated Model 3. \u00a0This news is not a surprise, but rather a relief; lawmakers have finally figured out a legal path to self driving cars coexisting with the rest of traffic. \u00a0The rest of the automakers are expected to follow suit with autonomous modes of their own by years end. \u00a0It is calculated that with state sponsored electric and autonomous vehicle incentive programs, 90%<\/a> of the US fuel consuming fleet will be off the road and recycled by 2030. \u00a0This seems about right to me. \u00a0But so what?<\/span><\/p>\n

*By fully autonomous mode, I mean you can summon your Model S from across the continent and it will come pick you up, having observed some basic \u2018safe conditions\u2019 speed limits and recharged itself along the way, and maybe recouping some cost of ownership for you by picking up passengers headed in its direction. It might even get itself detailed, then grab a latte and croissant for you just before picking you up. <\/span><\/p>\n

In the years between 2017 and 2054 a complete reversal is going to take place: roadways will go from accommodating the exception that is self driving cars, to accommodating the exception that is human driven cars, on specially designated lanes or roadways only<\/span>. <\/span><\/i>This will probably be more true the closer you are to urban centers. \u00a0I suspect that people will resist giving up driving in principle, but once they taste being chauffeured, they will quickly embrace it. \u00a0Traffic fatalities and insurance premiums will begin a steady asymptotic\u00a0decline towards zero as autonomous cars approach near ubiquity and the computational power of the control systems continues to grow. \u00a0Eventually there won’t even be individual ownership associated with day-to-day transport, and neighborhoods will be walking affairs only like villages of old.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what about my Giulietta? \u00a0In 2054 I will be 82 years old. \u00a0There is a very good chance that advances in genomic and medical science<\/a> mean that baring catastrophic mishap, I will probably be healthier than just about any 82 year old alive today, and unless I get into serious financial trouble<\/a>, I will probably have my trusty old 1959 Sprint tucked away for occasional use, shared by Rufus and maybe another \u2018shareholder\u2019 or two; people who buy into ownership in exchange for use and a slice of appreciation. \u00a0In 2054, since I was the \u2018original\u2019 owner of the Sprint, I actually make money owning it, having what would be considered \u2018preferred shares\u2019 in the Sprint.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a Saturday morning, 2054. \u00a0I am headed to my local old-time race track for a meet up of Alfa Giulietta owners to celebrate its 100th anniversary. I get dropped off by an Alphabet <\/a>electric automated\u00a0local transport module just as Rufus pulls up on his electric motorcycle -the latest driver assist model that makes every trip more exciting than the best 20th century roller coaster, with a setting for how white you want your knuckles to be as it makes its way perfectly safely through the sea of autonomous cars, all exchanging information on an infinitesimal time scale. \u00a0If a human brain were measuring the resolution of these exchanges in human sensory time scale<\/a>, it would be the equivalent of years spent driving across a city. \u00a0Or, from the other perspective, for the computer’s potential rate of data processing, the car is moving at a rate of perhaps years per <\/a>foot.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Rufus<\/a><\/p>\n

Rufus will be a little bigger than this in 2054 – he will be as old as I am now.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rufus and I enter the cultural museum \/ event space \/ classic car storage facility just as the attendant is wheeling the Sprint out. \u00a0In addition to mechanical maintenance, the facility guarantees conformity to the latest human powered car standards and regulations -basically verifying the completion of almost weekly firmware \/ security updates and occasional hardware changes. \u00a0I will drive the car just like I did 50 years ago, and a suite of sensors will relay real-time adjustments to my destination, route and any other necessary information to the regional control network, while locally, transponders and other sensors will interact with traffic at the individual vehicle level. \u00a0An automated parallel brake master cylinder, accelerator and steering box servo, developed to control traffic in the developing world, and capable of being controlled by the network as a last resort measure will hopefully not need to be used.<\/span><\/p>\n

I check the most recent maintenance and usage logs on the tablet the attendant hands me and assume liability<\/a> for any illegal usage with a thumb print. \u00a0Rufus gives a thumb print too. \u00a0We are basically agreeing to stick to the human controlled vehicle lanes and do our best to obey any traffic controls. \u00a0When this system debuted, in the second major top down rethink of network controlled traffic regulation, my \u2018loss of freedom\u2019 nerve was touched, but with speed limits changing in real-time in response to actual traffic conditions that are being regionally orchestrated, and things like traffic lights and stop \/ yield signs controlled to minimize the inefficiencies associated with arbitrary stopping, the maximum performance of this old car is unlikely to exceed what is legal, and I almost never have to come to a full stop -seldom even having to slow down. Driving in 2054 is somehow both safer and more fun!<\/p>\n

We climb in, buckle up and enter traffic. \u00a0Autonomous cars give us a lot of room to get up to speed and merge while quickly and efficiently passing us -like a stream parting around a rock. \u00a0As always, it takes us a minute to acclimate to a system that can handle a high degree of erratic driving without so much as a hiccup – a vestige of the systems having been developed from the bottom up -forced to deal with the\u00a0demands of mostly bad human driving habits rather than preventing these bad habits.<\/span><\/p>\n

To be continued…<\/p>\n

Please – let me hear your thoughts on what Giulietta ownership will be like for you in 39 years!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No, that title is not a typo, and this post is not from 39 years in the future, but it is about the future. \u00a0I have been having a lot of conversations about technology, especially self driving cars lately, and this post is in reaction to those conversations, and anticipates \/ explores that topic through … <\/p>\n

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